There’s an interesting discussion going on over at Redbaron Blog. Now while the baron and I may disagree over detail, broadly we are in consensus on the bigger picture. In this case, regarding the election in the UK; the matter of the best possible outcome.
I have long been disillusioned with the first past the post system used in the UK. The electoral college in the USA is similar in concept. The system works thus:
Each constituency fields a selection of candidates for parliament. The three major parties; Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat will have a showing in each constituency. Minority parties such as UK Independence Party, Respect, Veritas and The Natural Law party will field candidates in those seats where they feel that they will get a significant showing. In the devolved Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, the local national parties also field their own candidates. Ballots cast are for the local candidate. The party that wins overall is the one that wins enough seats to form a government. While this sounds logical – bear in mind that if you live in a "safe" seat; one where the majority for a particular candidate is all but assured, a vote for the opposition parties is meaningless. The outcome can well mean that a party forms a majority in parliament but has less votes overall. That’s where the system falls down. For example, the Liberal Democrats regularly get around 20% of the popular vote yet do not have a similar level of influence in the house – 19% at the last election gave them 52 seats. Labour polled 43% and gained a huge majority with 413 seats. Bear in mind also, that this was the lowest turnout since 1918. Of the 44 million registered voters, the Labour government with its massive majority gained only 25% support of those registered to vote – and that is only 44 million from a population of nearly 60 million. Representative? I don’t think so.
So what if we get a hung parliament? Unlikely going by the current trend in the polls, but possible. Traditionally this has been regarded as a bad thing as it inhibits strong government. However during the last eight years of strong government we have seen our liberties eroded in an unprecedented manner for peacetime. Therefore, strong government is not necessarily a good thing. A hung parliament will mean that the largest party will have to negotiate with the opposition to have any chance of pursuing its mandate. Perhaps the most significant factor will mean that the Liberal Democrats will have sufficient influence to force through electoral change.
Don’t however presume that this will always be a good thing – electoral change has the downside that should the politicians get it wrong (What? Not possible, surely?) we could end up with a system that gives too much influence to minority parties – and remember that the odious Nick Griffin’s British National Party is one such minority player on the field of British politics…
So why the damned spot? Well, given that I have no option but to operate within the confines of the existing system, I will be voting tactically. My MP voted in favour of ID cards at the third reading of the bill. This means that he supports Charles Clarke’s campaign against the freedoms of the British people. Therefore, I no longer want him to serve as my MP – he betrayed my trust. The Liberal Democrat candidate came a poor third at the last two elections. The most likely candidate to unseat the sitting MP is the Conservative, Owen Inskip. If I want to help reduce the Labour majority and in the process send a strong message to my current MP, then a vote for the Tories it will have to be. Idealogically, it would be hard to find a candidate that is further from my own position. I have never voted for them for this reason. I believed that I never would. I will find it difficult to do so. But I must. The damned spot will just have to be lived with.
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