Labour would win a 314-seat majority in the House of Commons if a general election was held tomorrow, according to a shock poll.
Really?
The polling firm’s modelling suggested…
I think we can stop right there, can’t we? Modelling is bunkum. There is only one poll that counts. If the Tories are to lose so many seats, it’s not inevitable that they will go to Labour. A wipe-out of that magnitude has the possibility of what happened to Lloyd George’s Liberal party. The Reform effect hasn’t been properly factored in here.
I do expect the Tories to lose. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another run of hung parliaments with Labour as the largest party, but a 300+ majority, I very much doubt.
You can reasonably argue that the Conservative’s 80 seat majority has resulted in lack of party discipline and factional struggles. Imagine what a 300 seat majority would do to Labour – a party already notorious for its lack of party discipline. No wonder Sir Ikea doesn’t seem joyful.
I’m starting to think that hung Parliaments are the best option – let them fight each other, instead of us.
“…..hung Parliaments are the best option …”
Why not put all of those lovely lampposts outside the building to good use? All we need now is some piano wire.
The choice as it stands is between the completely and utterly incompetent and the even worse. The Overton Window is now so far to the left that I have encountered people who admired the politics of Tony Blair being referred to as “Far Right Centrists”.
And yet The likes of Richard Murphy argue we are ‘close to fascism’ – the notion that we aren’t as a society quite significantly to the left of North Korea on certain issues is quite risible yet it is an article of faith amongst Leftists that we are in a ‘far right’ era
Just spotted this gem on the diabetes forum:
There is a massive traffic jam on the M5. Nothing is moving. All a driver can do is relax and turn on the radio. Suddenly a man approaches and knocks on the window. The driver rolls down the window and asks, “What’s going on?”
“Terrorists have stormed parliament, captured all our MPs and are demanding a 10 million pound ransom otherwise they are going to douse them all in petrol and set them on fire.” The man continues, “We are going from car to car taking up a collection.”
The driver asks, “How much is everyone giving?”
The man replies, “About a gallon or so.”
I will be voting Reform. But Reform faces a problem of public perception. A huge number of people think that the ONLY alternative to the Conservatives is Labour, even if those same people are in broad agreement with Reform policies. And if people think that Labour really is the only alternative then a 300 majority for them certainly is possible.
I don’t know if Reform can overcome this; but I hope they can.
I agree. This modelling is bollocks. Even Blair couldn’t achieve anything close to a 314 seat majority, and Sir Steer Calmer is no Blair. The last time there was a general election result with a majority of this kind was about 90 years ago.