They are doing what they always do with these by-election victories, projecting onto a GE. While this sometimes pans out, in most cases, it leads to disappointment.
It is a common refrain of evasive politicians that ‘the only poll that counts is a general election’.
And the stretches between elections often feel like a series of questions being posed, only finally to be answered when the British public gives their collective verdict.
Several of the main questions to be settled next year crystalised in last night’s extraordinary by-elections, where Labour kicked down the doors of two more true-blue strongholds.
In theory, the 20-point plus swing that Keir Starmer secured in Mid Beds and Tamworth is enough to have him ruling essentially a one-party state.
In reality, not even in his dizziest dreams will Sir Keir believe he can reduce the Tories to a rump of 20 MPs.
Well, quite. Labour didn’t knock down any doors. They got slightly fewer votes than they did in 2019. The Conservative vote failed to show up. In a by-election, this is a risk-free protest. Much the same when a minority party takes a seat in a by-election. I’m old enough to remember the by-election victory of the SDP with Rosie Barnes in 1987. Did this change the political landscape? Nope. While she was returned at the general election, the SDP was only ever a blip, subsequently absorbed by the Liberal party.
You really can’t read much into these by-elections other than that the Conservative voters are pissed off with the Conservative party and that the results aren’t surprising. However, faced with a Labour government, they are more likely to turn out and vote for the buggers in order to keep Starmer and his acolytes out.
If, on the other hand, there had been a massive swing with a significant increase in votes for Labour, they might have a point.
My bet is still on a hung parliament with Labour as the biggest party.
God help us.
It would be a landslide for whoever wants it if genuinely pro British policies were offered.
The problem is that anything that sounds even vaguely pro British is simply a lie and everybody knows it. The core votes of tories and labour are still far too large for comfort.
I was hoping for power cuts last year and am hoping for them over winter so the reality of “green” cannot be swept under the carpet any more.
I think SO many people are seething with anger at what the political “class” – that sewer of amoral, degenerate, narcissistic filth – have been doing for years but are despairing of being able to do anything about it.
For my own part, probably reform and if not, anybody but labour, tories or limpdumps.
A hung parliament it very likely will be. It has to be.
What is the difference between labour and tories? Is there anybody who actually believes it exists?
I liked this comment from Steve at Tim Worstal’s blog:
So what do you do when you’re a very unpopular governing party that’s 13 years in to pissing off all of your potential voters, you’re 20 points behind and the economy is in the toilet, law and order is breaking down, taxes are crushing the life out of everybody, nothing works in the public sector, and you’re in £2Tn of debt and fighting two proxy wars at the same time?
What urgent priorities do you use your precious remaining Parliamentary careers to address, in the hopes of saving your seats?
Sunak to push ahead with delayed ban on gay and trans conversion practices
Prime minister to include draft bill banning conversion practices in king’s speech, sources confirm
Fiddling while Rome burns…
Fiddling has a few meanings. Especially when applied to our Honourable Members. Heaven forfend.
If we had PR I’d vote Reform, but I’ll probably hold my nose and vote Tory. The thought of Labour getting in fills me with horror.
I’d sooner have a useless lot than a malicious lot.
I’ll vote reform anyway. Unless people stop voting for them, the Tories won’t change.
If there’s a Reclaim candidate they’ll get my vote, Reform if i have to, the last indy was a greeny with pictures of his electric virtue signalling car on the propaganda sheet he definately didn’t get my vote.
Haven’t voted for any of the 2.5 cheeks of the same arse party for over 30 years and have no intention of doing so again until they find some honour backbone and integrity, all presumably still missing down the back of the chaise longue.
I want a conservative party that conserves things and a labour party that doesn’t despise the native working class it won’t happen until someone with some gravitas who isn’t a controlled opposition shill comes along.
Andrew Bridgen’s debate on excess deaths yesterday evening was once again to a more or less deserted commons, though the public gallery was apparently packed with one Mike Yeadon and several other decent stalwarts in attendance, once again with few exceptions hundreds of MPs proved beyond doubt their contempt for the public of the country…don’t vote for them, it doesn’t matter which of the arse cheeks gets in, what does matter is greedy fake tories must lose their seats, that’s the only way the tories will change.
I really wish people would rid themselves of the idea that they have to vote for the Tories to keep Labour out. Yes Labour are worse than the Tories but a Tory vote does nothing but ensure that Britain goes down the toilet just a tiny bit more slowly. We have effectively become a one party state, as long as we keep voting for one or the other of these arse cheeks it will stay that way.