Iran Next?

George Bush is now inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA. Following the debacle of the 2000 elections it seemed then improbable that he would survive a second election, but survive he did. Now, it seems, the world is about to become a darker more dangerous place.

The Middle East has been a hotbed of discontent for thousands of years. I wonder at the optimism of “road maps for peace” between the Palestinians and Israel when bearing in mind the bitter feud that has existed since biblical times. A good grudge harboured over generations is not easily laid to rest. For some years there has been an undercurrent of fear in the western world that a major conflict on the scale of the two world wars would erupt in this peculiarly unstable region.

The US/UK coalition’s war in Iraq was bad enough, but for the moment seems to be contained within Iraq’s borders. That the war was based upon either bad or misleading intelligence is neither here nor there – the enterprise was both illegal and flawed. To the casual observer, it had “Vietnam” written all over it. You do not just walk into someone else’s country, kick out the ruling elite and replace it with your own vision of how things ought to be. It just doesn’t work like that. If the Middle East was really ready for democracy, there would be more of it in evidence. The plain fact of the matter is that for the most part, the culture demands some form of dictatorship. And as time goes on the face of that dictatorship is increasingly Islamic theocracy. I don’t like it much either, but it’s not my country so it’s none of my business.

Back to George Bush though. It seems that already he is flexing his muscles. Not content with the quagmire that is Iraq, he is setting his sights on Iran. Iran’s crime? Ah, yes, their nuclear programme. Now, it worries me, too, that the Mullahs might get their hands on a nuclear bomb. But – and here’s the rub – it is not up to those who have it to decide who else should join the club.

It would seem that the “special relationship” that exists between the British government and Washington is under some strain over this issue:

“British officials are increasingly concerned that months of patient European-led diplomacy aimed at curbing the ayatollahs’ nuclear ambitions may suddenly explode in a torrent of bunker-busting bombs dropped by B-2 stealth bombers.”

And, tellingly:

“There is also concern in London that the Pentagon may be ordered to act on the basis of flawed intelligence. “

Well, there’s a surprise.

There is also the little matter of undermining resistance to the Ayatollahs inside Iran. A strike – whether from the USA or Israel might just have an undesired side effect:

” far from encouraging Iranian reformers to rise up against their theocratic government, any form of US intervention might unite the country behind Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s supreme leader.”

This time, should the USA decide to stretch its resourses to breaking point, draft all its able bodied men and women and declare war on Iran, the UK must say a resounding NO!