The scientific process has become so degraded, so corrupted that it no longer bears any resemblance to what I understand as science – the science that I understood when I studied chemistry, physics and later mathematics and electronics.
Today we get the BBC parroting a story with just such an example.
About 4,600 lives in England could be saved a year by reducing alcohol intake to just half a unit a day, say experts.
Presumably that is expert as in erstwhile and a small drop of liquid under pressure. It certainly isn’t an example of expertise that I understand:
The Oxford University team used data from the 2006 General Household Survey looking at weekly drinking patterns of 15,000 adults in England.
Okay… 15,000 ain’t much, but I’ll run with it for the moment.
The researchers used a mathematical model to study death rates from 11 illnesses known to be linked to long-term alcohol use, the British Medical Journal reported.
These included coronary heart disease, stroke, high blood pressure, diabetes, cirrhosis of the liver, epilepsy and five cancers.
Woah there, hold up a minute – a mathematical model based upon an assumption is not by any stretch of the imagination a scientific approach. They have not determined causation.
Sir, I admit your general rule
That every poet is a fool.
But you yourself will serve to show it,
That every fool is not a poet.Alexander Pope.
Correlation is not causation. Repeat after me; correlation is not causation.
Daily alcohol use in the form of something red-coloured induces only joy in me and probably longer health.
“a mathematical model based upon an assumption is not by any stretch of the imagination a scientific approach. They have not determined causation.”
I suspect the point of many mathematical models is to avoid the question of causation. Bury the issue in a model and hope nobody notices.
I noticed.
Half a unit a day? So a pint of beer should last you about four days then?
Mathematical ‘model’ my arse. It’s just a sum they did; divide two numbers by the same, other number. They call that ‘research’?
My how nice.
More science that is ‘Fake’ but deemed ‘Accurate’!!!! 🙄
From the horses mouth, or the original data at http://www.esds.ac.uk/findingData/snDescription.asp?sn=5804
As to why they didn’t use more up to date data. The GHS is no longer being carried out. As to why they used 2006, well just read the notes below, especially about the change in assumptions.
“Changes to the drinking section
There have been a number of revisions to the methodology that is used to produce the alcohol consumption estimates. In 2006, the average number of units assigned to the different drink types and the assumption around the average size of a wine glass was updated, resulting in significantly increased consumption estimates. In addition to the revised method, a new question about wine glass size was included in the survey in 2008. Respondents were asked whether they have consumed small (125 ml), standard (175 ml) or large (250 ml) glasses of wine. The data from this question are used when calculating the number of units of alcohol consumed by the respondent. It is assumed that a small glass contains 1.5 units, a standard glass contains 2 units and a large glass contains 3 units. (In 2006 and 2007 it was assumed that all respondents drank from a standard 175 ml glass containing 2 units.) The datasets contain the original set of variables based on the original methodology, as well as those based on the revised and (for 2008 onwards) updated methodologies. Further details on these changes are provided in the Guidelines documents held in SN 5804 – GHS 2006; and SN 6414 – GLF/GLS 2008: Special Licence Access.”
And then there are the questions themselves which ask people to describe in their own terms and not in any objective manner, such as do you drink heavily?
And then you have the answers which are “Almost every day, 5 or 6 days a week, 3 or 4 days a week, once or twice a week, once or twice a month, once every couple of months, once or twice a year, not at all in last 12 months” which doesn’t cater for the “I had a real bevy the other week because it was my birthday but normally I drink lightly on random days of the year when I feel like it”.