Correlation is not Causation

This cack is passed off as science these days.

Around 4,800 people took part in this year’s online Flu Survey, run by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Okay, fine, I can see the logic in wanting to gain some understanding of the risks and as an epidemiological tool, it will have some benefit. However:

One of the questions people must answer when they register, as well as their age, if they are around children and if they have been vaccinated, is how many hours of “vigorous exercise” they do each week, such as running, fast cycling or competitive sports, ranging from none to more than five hours.

Okaaaay….

The researchers say their findings suggest 100 cases of flu per 1,000 people could be prevented just by engaging in vigorous exercise.

Oh, Jesus! That is correlation. Correlation is not the same thing as causation. That’s pretty basic stuff – yet here we have the national broadcaster presenting this nonsense as if it is some sort of scientific fact. Look, maybe, just maybe, vigorous exercise will increase one’s immunity to flu. However, this doesn’t prove that. Not anywhere close. They have discovered an apparent correlation. That is all.

6 Comments

  1. Not just the national broadcaster thinking there is a connection between exercise and flu prevention, the researchers too. Is the quality of scientists now-a-days?

  2. Those are outdoor and mostly solitary types of exercise, if they are doing those they are not inside a stuffy building with other people so will have statistically less chance of catching flu – maybe the figures do show that? – but if that’s the case standing on a remote hillside would be just as good.

  3. Naturally, since they’ve researched into tax fraud, and found that almost 100% of male tax fraud perpetrators wear socks, we can now expect Mr Plod & Mr HMRC to investigate every male found to be wearing socks…

  4. Or it could mean that you are more likely to get flu from jogging, sweating , and getting rained on.
    Now whilst it is plausible that vigorous exercise could keep you flu free it is equally plausible that it could not.
    They also seem to forget that REAL Flu is very rare in my 49 years I have only met one person who has had real flu, and even the doctor called out to that person said it was the first case of “Real Flu” they had seen in 10 years.
    The person concerned could not sit up move or get out of bed was sweating so much the sheets had to be changed ever hour and could not even swallow water easily.
    We have abused the term flu for such a long time that a sniffle a mildly drippy nose and a aha (pathetic cough like a small mouse) is classed as flu.
    Also I agree with Ted, if you follow the logic on flu all men who wear socks are tax dodgers I am writing to HMRC now to tell them so. 😉

  5. I have seen this elsewhere and it really seems to be taking on a life of it’s own. Think about it for a moment and you will see that this is nothing more than an admission that we are living a too sedentary life-style. If this encourages more people to exercise we may all gain.

    I do agree with your central point, that being that the science is dodgy. Hasn’t it always?

Comments are closed.