Damned if she does, damned if she doesn’t.
PM prepares for MASS resignations: Justice secretary warns he will lead remainder Cabinet walk out if May doesn’t back customs union this week – but Brexiteers will walk if she does
Given that parliament is now in a state of paralysis and the cabinet is so divided that the PM is unable to make a decision without it all collapsing about her ears, I’m beginning to think that an election really is on the cards. It would be nice if the electorate all voted against the incumbent and thus routed the current parliament with a completely new house. Whether those new members were prepared to actually fulfil the task that they have been given is another matter of course. But it would be nice to see.
The problem here of course is that nobody fights an election that they cannot win unless they are forced to do so by the legal requirement to hold elections every 5 years (previously required under the Parliament Act 1911 and now covered by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011).
As it stands today, the Tories are pretty much certain that if a General Election were to be called right now to attempt to fix the BRExit deadlock then there would be a bloodbath with lots of marginal Tory seats going Labour and a lot of electoral anger being channeled by the voters.
The unpleasant and otherwise unelectable bunch of Marxists who have taken possession of the Labour Party should be equally unelectable, but given the punishment being meted out to the Tories, Labour would certainly increase their number of seats although I’d expect a substantial reduction of Labour support in their heartlands in the North and North East of England.
The SNP are in decline in Scotland, so expect to see a return of the traditional Liberal Democrats and even some Tories in places like Perth, but Labour are likely to see a possible wipe out in Scotland. Overall, I doubt that Labour would secure a majority at Westminster, but they would certainly become the largest minority party there and could act in coalition with the SNP. No doubt the cost of this would be a guarantee to repudiate BRExit in some form or other.
Given such a likely outcome, why on earth would the Tories go through the pain of fighting and losing an election at the present time? Despite Treason May’s threats to do so and the current blind and masochistic behaviour of MP’s across all parties I doubt we would see “The Turkey’s Voting for Christmas” any time soon.
Having shot their load and missed with the failed attempt to oust Treason May last year the Tories are in the unenviable position of having a terrible PM that they can neither persuade to go for the good of the party, nor can they oust in a cabinet coup. So expect the current situation to continue until the EU decides “enough is enough” and refuses further extensions of Article 50, triggering a hard BRExit or Treason May’s BRINO deal is finally accepted at the nth time of asking.
This farce with Treason May will drag on until December at least and I doubt we will see a General Election before May 2020 at the earliest, probably during the honeymoon period of a new PM (although who that would be I hazard to guess)
They could yet lose a vote of no confidence. If the DUP pull their support, it could well swing it.
Surely the DUP wouldn’t want to risk a pro IRA Corbyn government? Actually I cannot see any point in having an election. Why risk suicide? There is no obvious reason for an election. Brexit is hardly a reason or even a clear motive
The stagnation of parliament and an inability to govern?
Northern Ireland has had the stagnation of parliament and an inability to govern for over 2 years, and they don’t seem too bothered…
Talking to a taxi driver in Belfast, no, they don’t. However, I can see it coming to a head. I’m fine with them not being able to indulge in binge legislation, but this paralysis will eventually reach a head. Labour are so convinced they will win, I see them agitating for a vote of no confidence. I don’t think they will win an election – rather I think it will result in a hung parliament. However, all that said, I wouldn’t be surprised by an early election, which was what I was saying here.
“Why risk suicide?” The woman is a fool. Remember that last time around she called an early election and came home with a smaller majority than she started with. She was a remainer as Home Sec and hasn’t changed her ways.
Hell, Oily Robbers was doing such a good job “negotiating” in her eyes that he got a Christmas bonus!
Actually, without the one serious job that I really wish that they would get on with, having a paralysed and ineffective government would be a good thing. Since they tend to screw everything up, doing nothing would be an improvement.
Since Parliament seems completely consumed with BRExit to the exclusion of all other matters, essentially a fight which they can neither win, nor quit, we’ve had an almost perfect example of a state in legislative paralysis.
If only the buggers could keep it up without taking over the News channel ever evening. Maybe we should have BBC Parliament does BRExit in the same way that Channel 4 did “Big Brother”? I can’t imagine there is that much difference.
Indeed it would, but that will be addressed by “not enough time” for new candidates. Thus, Soubry, May, Letwin, Abbot, Lammy et al will be on ballot again.
If they had any honour, they’d resign their candidacy & seats and tell voters “Sorry, we’ve let you down. We can’t do Brexit, elect a new MP who will”
According to their website Broxtowe Conservatives haven’t decided upon a new candidate yet. But I still can’t see Soubry winning as a CUK.
If everyone voted against the incumbent, that would have an effect.