Another Scare Story

What they are talking about is Guillain-Barré syndrome. So another reason to get the vaccine. Except that this syndrome can occur after flu and isn’t especially new. A friend of mine died of it thirty years ago. It’s a risk, but a small one and not one to get too worked up about. You are probably more likely to die in a road traffic incident.

Rare neurological conditions may occur after Covid vaccination, but the risk is far higher in people who catch Covid, new research suggests.

Doctors say the landmark UK study provides further reassurance that being vaccinated offers the best protection for overall health.

Well, they would say that, wouldn’t they? If you are in the high risk category and are elderly to boot, then I would say that getting the vaccine probably does reduce the risk. For the rest of us, there’s no point. The ONS stats give us the actual picture. This is a disease with a very low kill rate and the vast majority experience severe flu like symptoms and then recover. In other words, much like flu.

In the study, following the first dose of vaccine, there were:

  • 38 extra cases (compared to the baseline risk of getting the condition) of GBS for every 10 million adults having the Oxford-Astrazeneca vaccine
  • 60 extra cases of haemorrhagic stroke (a bleed in the brain) for every 10 million adults having the Pfizer vaccine

Meanwhile for people who had a coronavirus infection, there were approximately:

  • 145 extra GBS cases per 10 million with a positive test
  • 123 extra brain inflammation disorder cases like encephalitis meningitis and myelitis per 10 million people
  • 163 extra cases of myasthenia-like disorders (immune conditions affecting the nerves and muscles) per 10 million people

Bear in mind these samples are from a population of nearly seventy million people. They are barely a statistical blip. Less than two hundred in ten million is hardly “far higher.”

3 Comments

  1. “You are probably more likely to die in a road traffic incident.”

    Almost certainly. I looked up the numbers recently for a comment elsewhere. While the panic-merchants are correct in saying that you aren’t, in fact, more likely to be killed on the road* than by Covid itself, it’s in the same ballpark: from memory, 2.75 per 100,000 for the roads and 3.5 per 100,000 for Covid if you’re unvaccinated.

    For the record, I took a pro-vax guy’s word for the latter figure, so if it’s incorrect, it’s more likely to be overstating the risk than underestimating it. (Not to mention the official overestimation that’s been going on anyway.) Either way, Guillain-Barré is bound to be lower than that.

    *In the UK. We have unusually safe roads. You’re more than three times as likely to be run over by a car in South Africa (around 12-13 per 100,000) than you are to be killed by Covid if you’re unvaccinated in the UK.

  2. Have they forgotten that the vaccines no longer protect against infection? As admitted by the Prime Minister no less? So if getting jabbed gives you X risk on its own, and catching covid gives you 2 or 3X risk, but getting jabbed doesn’t stop you catching covid, haven’t you just increased your risk by the original X if you get jabbed?

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