Well…

February 27, 2022 Longrider General News, Political 14

That’s interesting. Maybe things aren’t going quite to plan.

Kyiv and Moscow will hold peace talks at the border with Belarus, Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed today – as Vladimir Putin ordered the forces operating Russia’s nuclear deterrent to be on alert amid simmering tensions with the West.

The tensions, Putin would have expected and planned for, along with the sanctions. But the fact that they are event talking about talking peace does tend to suggest that the invasion didn’t go as smoothly as he had hoped. Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

It’s worth noting that as a general rule, the defender has the advantage of being on home ground and having greater motivation. Certainly the attempts to scare the Ukrainian forces into surrender appear to have failed. The willingness to talk is a tacit admission that this didn’t go well. What will be interesting is what happens in Russia. Putin doesn’t have unqualified support among his own people, so if this ends badly it leaves him weakened.

Frankly, if he is toppled, the world will be a better place.

14 Comments

  1. I agree with the reservation that whoever replaces Putin may be no better. Democracy doesn’t guarantee high quality leadership. A “managed democracy” such as Russia has certainly doesn’t. In the end, corruption in Russia is so endemic that to go into politics, public administration or even the police is to become (or at least appear to a cynical public to become) a criminal. God knows what kind of revolution is needed to change that. It’s not new. It was like that before Communism.

  2. Its confusing me, to be honest. All across the internet, especially places like Twitter, people are displaying the Ukrainian flag and hashtag “Stand With Ukraine”.

    I’m saying that’s fine – stand with Ukraine, but which half of Ukraine are you standing with? Are you standing with the neo nazi regime in Kiev or the ethnic Russians in the Donbass region? You can’t stand with both. Because there has been a civil war going on in Ukraine for years. The problem, as far as I can see, is that the Western media has kept this a taboo subject and as a result no one has any idea. It seems that those armchair covid/mask experts have suddenly flipped to being political consultants.

    Even our own head of MI6 doesn’t get it. He’s fighting Vlad the Lad by lighting up the MI6 building in the colours of the Ukrainian flag. That’ll sort it then, after all this is a powerful chap – he has pronouns in his bio.

    https://twitter.com/ChiefMI6/status/1496944844350308353

    Putin doesn’t need to talk peace. However I’ve seen reports this morning that say the Kiev regime (AZOV) are asking for talks. But if you heard Putin’s address a couple of days ago, he refuses to talk to them. He will talk to the Ukraine military if that’s what they want.

    https://thegrayzone.com/2018/04/07/the-us-is-arming-and-assisting-neo-nazis-in-ukraine-while-congress-debates-prohibition/

    But be careful what you see, there is a lot of propaganda floating around right now. In the last 24 hours I’ve seen news reports in the mainstream media that have:

    Used footage of a bad thunderstorm to depict fighting.

    Used player footage from a video game as footage of a Russian jet dodging ground fire.

    Photos of Ukranian fighters with cardboard AK47s
    https://twitter.com/Gunner_Vitale/status/1497669654155833344

    Old footage being used of a Russian air show.

    • Actually, you can stand with both. I stand with the right of secession of any state from a larger entity – it’s why I voted to leave the EU, it’s why I’m happy for the Scots to leave the UK or Catalonia to leave Spain. So if the eastern states want to leave Ukraine, I support that, just as I support the right of the rest of Ukraine not to be invaded.

      It was the Beeb that got caught using pictures of an air display a few years ago apparently. So I always treat reports with some degree of caution.

      • I respectfully disagree LR. I cannot understand how anyone can stand with a country in civil war. I understand where you are coming from and its a noble attitude – I would like to stand for the people of Ukraine, but I can’t because half of them are pro Russian and the other half want them to be wept from the face of the planet. That means choosing a side because you can’t be on both.

        “I stand with the right of secession of any state from a larger entity”

        That’s exactly right, but not so simple. The people of Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbass region have seceded from Ukraine, but they are pro Russian independent states. They have asked Russia for protection from AZOV and that is exactly what they are getting. So, the way I see it, the Russians are agreeing with you. They are standing for the secession of two states from a larger entity.

        Putin reckons that he wants to defang (de-nazify) the Ukranian military and that means taking out AZOV, which he will do. You may have noticed that in general the Russian strikes in various places have been precision. It now transpires that all of the US owned bio warfare labs have been taken out. Some of these labs were owned by Peter Dazak’s company and were working on “gain of function” with Fauci.

        https://newspunch.com/putin-orders-military-to-destroy-bio-labs-in-ukraine-as-us-scrubs-evidence-of-their-existence/

        I’m aware that Putin is no angel, but then he’s not as black as the West likes to paint him. On this occasion I think he has it right. Time will tell. In my view, the West has not only shot itself in both feet but the knee caps as well. Who do you think is going to take up all the slack on the gas and wheat etc? I will be fully in line with your principles when it comes to Taiwan.

        Yes, the incident with the BBC and others a few years ago, footage of US forces carrying out a raid in Syria – was actually the Knob Creek gun club annual event (night time shoot) in Kentucky. Man, they have some impressive firepower at these shows.

        • On the subject of propaganda, it’s worth bearing in mind that Putin is ex KGB, so deception is at the heart of what he says. I would no more trust him to be truthful than any other source.

          As far as deNazifying the Ukraine military, that is no more his job than it was Blair and Bush’s job to remove Saddam Hussain.

          I respectfully disagree LR. I cannot understand how anyone can stand with a country in civil war.

          That’s the point, until secession actually happens it is a civil war, so no one else’s business, any more than the Libyan civil war was any of our business, and was rightly voted down by our parliament. I support the right of secession, but I do not support outsiders meddling in the matter, it is up to the two parties involved to solve it. So, yes, I can stand with both sides, depending on the issue. I will never stand with an aggressive predatory invasion of a sovereign state, regardless of the internal affairs that preceded it or are used as a pretext for the invasion itself. Any sympathies I had for Putin’s position (and I did have some) evaporated the minute his troops crossed the border.

      • Wow LR ! As an Englishman i’d love Scotland and Wales to be independent and not to have to subsidise them anymore ! Northern Ireland too !!

  3. I’ve always believed Putin didn’t want all of Ukraine. The attack is predominately an aggressive message to Zelensky and his SS thugs to not interfere in East states joining Russia and to be more Russia friendly

    Peter Hitchens: West, Russia and China
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10555573/

    @Ripper
    +1 +10

    + Used player footage from a video game as footage of Russian tanks

    “The problem, as far as I can see, is that the Western media has kept this a taboo subject and as a result no one has any idea”

    Yep, see Peter Hitchens 21 Feb column

    Covid? Seems Russian invasion has killed it: no Covid deaths, cases, hospital on news

    Shame Vlad didn’t invade two years ago

    • @Pcar
      Brilliant piece from Hitchens. I wonder why the Daily Mail chose not to accept comments on it..

      It actually came as somewhat of a shock to me when I ventured onto Twitter yesterday morning, there seemed to be only one narrative, everybody with the Ukrainian flag in the bio saying the same thing. A lot of the comments were nothing short of childish. I shouldn’t really have been shocked by that, since these were the same kind of comments on covid for the last 2 years. Still, I was expecting at least some alternate views but there was none. Twitter is like a cess pit of virtue signalers. But I can’t help feeling some empathy for them because they have been lied to so much and know no better.

      I get what you’re saying about Vlad invading 2 years ago, however I think Climate Change would do the same right now. Vlad has at least stemmed that for the moment.

      This guy has pretty much the same take as Hitchens. Describes my stance on it better than I could ever hope to myself.

      https://brandnewtube.com/watch/what-you-don-039-t-know-about-the-war-in-ukraine_mby9EEP66SHjBpO.html

      • Brilliant piece from Hitchens. I wonder why the Daily Mail chose not to accept comments on it..

        Couple of things here. Both Hitchens and Farage have made similar points leading up to the invasion. Points with which I have some sympathy. As I’ve said, The decision to invade crossed a line for me, despite sharing both the above’s criticism of the expansion of NATO for example. As for comments, the Mail never has them on Hitchens’ articles. Presumably because he is consistently off message?

        It actually came as somewhat of a shock to me when I ventured onto Twitter yesterday morning, there seemed to be only one narrative, everybody with the Ukrainian flag in the bio saying the same thing.

        The last two years has taught me that many of my friends and erstwhile colleagues are virtue-signalling twats. The “I’ve been vaccinated” badges were a particular low for me. But maybe it’s me that’s out of step.

        Peter North commented at some length on Farcebook. As most people here don’t have access, I’ll copy and paste the whole thing:

        There was good reason to doubt whether Putin would invade Ukraine. The invasion thus far is turning into the very shambles many anticipated. A rational actor wouldn’t have done it. It would seem, though, that Putin is not the rational actor many took him for.
        So far Ukrainian forces appear to be holding their own and they’re not going to run short of anything. Meanwhile the Russian army is having serious problems. Away from its elite units, it’s a ramshackle organisation, poorly equipped, badly trained and badly led, and with low morale. This is now becoming very apparent.
        A larger ground offensive has by now lost any element of surprise. Ukraine now has prepared defensive positions and stockpiles of anti-tank munitions, having destroyed all the main bridges. It’s hard to see how an armoured thrust can succeed – and certainly not without air superiority. Ukrainian air defences have not yet been overwhelmed or defeated.
        That said, having now established that Putin is not acting rationally, and having to save face, he could very well launch an all out assault, of an intensity we have not yet seen. We haven’t yet seen a “full scale invasion” that matches the hyperbole. Though Twitter pundits are convinced Ukraine is holding its own, it cannot withstand the full weight of Putin’s arsenal, and it could come down to close quarters street battled in Kiev by the end of the week.
        In a fluid situation such as this, confident predictions last only a matter of hours. The trouble is we don’t know what Putin was thinking at the beginning, and how many times he changed his mind since.
        This is where the West ought to be thinking about de-escalation and creating a diplomatic off ramp for Putin, instead of pumping in more weapons and openly contemplating “regime change” (thereby feeding Russian paranoia). But the EU appears to be using Ukraine as its proxy.
        Ukraine has been selected to play the role of the plucky underdog and we are to believe it is a newly emerging liberal democracy because it turns towards NATO and the EU in a crisis it helped to foment. That Ukraine is a corrupt basketcase riddled with fascism (the real kind) and organised crime at the highest levels is conveniently forgotten. This evening, with all the diplomatic finesse of a Sherman tank, Ursula von der Leyen said “Ukraine is “one of us” and we want it to join the EU”. If she’s trying to provoke Putin, that’s the way to go about it.
        It is the Western consensus view that Putin has failed in all of his objectives, and his underlying assumptions about the strength of resistance were wrong, thus the West can ramp up provocations and the flow of weapons, and the fact that Putin is apparently acting irrationally while in command of a vast arsenal of nuclear weapons need not distract us.
        It certainly would have made sense to have cultivated Ukrainian armed neutrality before reaching this point, but to broadcast our direct involvement turns this from regional ethno-nationalist friction into a war that could potentially engulf the whole of Europe – or result in another cold war, pushing Russia into the arms of China. We couldn’t have made a bigger mess of it. As much as anything, flooding Ukraine with weapons, up to and including anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles will have consequences later down the line, The threat to civil airlines from terrorist groups is considerable.
        The one thing that is clear is that this war has redefined European politics. It’s clear that energy security must take precedence over green fantasies and Germany cannot outsource its security to the USA. Closer to home, now that we know what real refugees look like (ie. women and children escaping an actual war) there’s likely to be far less tolerance for the cheats who arrive in dinghies. We can also put to bed any notion that Britain has no role in Europe outside of the EU. For what that’s worth.
        Hopefully this won’t escalate into something far bigger and more dangerous but the era that began when the Berlin wall came down is now well and truly over. All of the assumptions of that era, from energy to defence and trade must now be rethought. We’ve run down our army, outsourced our production and allowed our enemies to weaken us through trade. This may be a turning point in which the West can no longer afford its self-indulgence and virtue signalling. The world just got serious – and the West has been asleep.

      • Thanks for brandnewtube link, good video

        “As for comments, the Mail never has them on Hitchens’ articles”

        Yep, always “…comment go to his DM blog”

  4. It’s funny how the media has been shown to lie blatantly since 2016 (It lied before but were not so brazen before) about everything (the most obvious being Trump and covid), yet for some reason, we should believe them on Ukraine.

    I wish Putin had not done what he did because it will create more headaches for us (by us, I mean law abiding taxpaying citizens) but it shows once again the sheer incompetence of our leaders to have let it come to this.

    Funnily enough, Germany has now voted to increase military spending to 2% of GDP. Now, who was decried for suggesting just that not that long ago, I wonder?

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