Usual Caveats Apply

These are mayoral, local and by-elections we are talking about, and we have four years until a general election, but the mood across the country is clear.

Nigel Farage hailed ‘Reform-quake’ in local elections today as he saw his fledgling party rout the Tories and Labour in their back yards.

The jubilant party now runs a swath of big authorities for the first time – securing majorities on Kent, Staffordshire, Lincolnshire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Lancashire county councils after a Conservative collapse.

Labour’s worst fears were also realised as Durham – regarded as the spiritual home of the labour movement – fell after a century under the party’s control. As a landmark set of results took shape, Mr Farage celebrated with activists in the North East.

In an ominous warning, he recalled that people had mocked him for saying he would be the next PM, adding: ‘They’re not laughing now, are they?’

A projected national vote share from the local election results put Reform on 30 per cent, ahead of Labour on 20 per cent, the Lib Dems on 17 per cent, and Tories on 15 per cent.

This would give Reform a 102-seat majority in the House of Commons if replicated at a general election, according to one estimation. Mr Farage said: ‘Reform can and will win the next general election.’

He his party would end WFH in councils they now control and introduce US-style ‘DOGE’ departments, saying staff working on diversity or climate change projects should be ‘seeking alternative careers’.

We will see how the momentum goes from here, but it does look as if we have one of those shifts that occurs under our system, such as happened when Labour wiped out the Liberal Party. What is really interesting is that Reform appeals to disaffected voters from both Tory and Labour camps. How that will transfer to an general election remains to be seen. We do live in interesting times.

13 Comments

  1. “…staff working on diversity or climate change projects should be ‘seeking alternative careers.”

    That snippet cheers me up all on its own.

  2. It’s a pity that our local councillor nailed her flag to the wrong mast. She has been a good working councillor but was ousted by a Reform candidate nobody seems to have seen. Thus the SS Starmer went down taking some good people with it . . .

  3. Now that they have actual power, they need to use it wisely, exerting that power in a responsible way to the benefit of those they represent. If they improve services while lowering or maintaining the same level of council tax, the locals will be happy. But if they govern in an incompetent and arrogant way, putting ideological concerns over providing services, they could screw up Reform’s general election chances.

  4. August 8th 1918. Ludendorff called it the black day of the German army.

    The battle of Amiens began, and three months later it was all over. Even in August 1918 there were many on the allied side who believed the war could drag on well into 1919. That the German defences could well get stronger as they retreated and the front shortened.

    Ludendorff was writing later with a bit of hindsight, reporting how German morale had started to collapse (and allied morale had, of course started to rise)

    We’ve just seen something similar and the two original cheeks of the uniarse have probably just died.

    The tories were given a chance in 2019, labour (largely by default) last year. What did both do?

    I’m not sure I’d even call it betrayal as that would mean some recognition of what it was they betrayed. It was a detachment so profound and all embracing that I actually believe the bemusement of badenoch and the talking blow up doll, der sturmer is genuine!

    They don’t even know what a British patriot – with belief in their country, and profound concern for its future – actually is. I’m not sure they can even comprehend the idea.

    I think we are in uncharted waters.

    Interestingly, the limp dumps/greens got a bit of a boost. Perhaps it will be them vs reform (or any successor) as a new alignment?

    We’ll see, but the elephant in the room – gimmegration, both illegal and legal – isn’t going away.

    It needs to be addressed, and it will be an issue in 2029 (or sooner). This is the acid test. Platitudes will no longer do. Genuine action is needed.

    To convince me, these actions can be fairly restrained initially. Basically, stop digging?

    After that, I fully recognise the horrendous problem the globo-filth have created and that it won’t be easy, but try and get us on your side

    Again we’ll see

  5. I’m afraid I’m all tapped out on optimism, I think the country is too far gone. Should Farage become PM, civil service will sabotage and refuse to carry orders. Some diverse police forces likewise. Judges etc, you name it. I see 3 choices: islamisation, civil war or balkanisation. I’ll give it until 2035.

    Just reading the comments in a local paper tell me some people have no idea why Reform won yesterday. These are the same people who think 2tier is a Zionist and his policies are not socialist enough.

  6. I hope that Reform stays true. Too many times we have had our hopes shattered.

  7. Think how joyous it would have been if Two Tier hadn’t limited the councils up for election. Sly bit of politicking there.

  8. The new Reform led councils could show the way by preventing Serco blanket renting private dwellings in their areas for illegal immigrants.

  9. As someone who was denied the opportunity to vote in a local election year, it pleases me to see that Reform did so well. I consider this to be an audition for the post of party of government and Nigel as PM. I don’t particularly like Nigel, but I like a lot of what he and people are saying. What these Reform controlled councils do in the next four years will watched be closely, and they have to perform. If they do well, they’ll gain more support and come 2029 they will elected to government. The general election is now theirs to win or lose. For the moment, one big thing in their favour, is that they are not tarred with the stench of corruption and cronyism like the other parties, they have a completely clean slate. Let’s hope they keep it that was.

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