Er…

Mark Honigsbaum on the swine flu pandemic that never was. Apparently, the panicmongering was the right thing to do.

But as all good schoolboys know, post hoc doesn’t make propter hoc. Just because 65,000 Britons didn’t die this winter does not mean that the computer models were wrong or that the Department of Health shouldn’t have ordered 50m doses of Tamiflu, only that prognostications about pandemics, like prognostications about earthquakes, are not an exact science.

But they were wrong and all that Tamiflu was wasteful. The pandemic didn’t happen, just as the SARS pandemic didn’t happen, just as the bird flu pandemic didn’t happen, just as the CJD pandemic didn’t happen, just as the AIDS pandemic didn’t happen. Exact science, no I’ll grant you, and given that – along with experience from previous scares that didn’t happen, perhaps a more cautious approach would have been the right one? All those who are saying “told you so” that Honigsbaum complains about are right and were right. Maybe that’s why he is complaining…

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