It always amuses me when there is a by-election and the winning candidate spews gibberish about the result “being a message” for the incumbent government or opposition depending on the result. Okay, sometimes they are right – much like that stopped clock. As an administration nears its natural demise a by-election will indicate a change in the electorate’s mood and there will be an upset as a supposedly safe seat swings to the opposition. But the Barnsley election cannot be seen as one of these, despite the pronouncements of Dan Jarvis.
Mr Jarvis, a 38-year-old former soldier who served in Afghanistan and Iraq, said the people of Barnsley Central were sending the “strongest possible message” to David Cameron and Nick Clegg.
“Your reckless policies, your broken promises and unfair cuts are letting our country down,” he said.
Mr Jarvis was a Labour candidate standing in a safe Labour seat (and representing the party that is directly responsible for the “reckless polices and cuts” that are now so necessary) so his winning was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Did anyone seriously expect a different result? All this tells me is that the electors who actually bothered to vote – a mere 35% of them have very short memories and are a bit stupid, having learned nothing from history. That the other parties moved their deck chairs around may well be interesting, but I doubt we would see a UKIP opposition in the aftermath of the next general election, no matter how nice it would be to see a small party upset the equilibrium.
No, the reality here is that in the safety of a by-election electors played the game they always play and decided to give the incumbent administration a bit of a kicking. Around 70% of them couldn’t be arsed and I’d say that was a message to all of the political class if they can get their noses out of the trough long enough to actually take note. That a majority of a minority voted for the Labour party and a minority of that minority didn’t vote for the Conservatives or the LibDems doesn’t send any message at all, despite the hyperbole.