Is this the start of a political shift such as the one that ousted the Liberals in 1922?
Nearly a quarter of voters who backed the Conservatives at the last general election now support Reform UK, a new poll has found.
According to a Redfield & Wilton survey, 24 per cent of those who supported the Tories in 2019 have since switched to the Nigel Farage-backed party – a record high.
Only two in five (42 per cent) of 2019 Tory voters said they would still back the party at a general election, which was the joint-lowest level since Rishi Sunak became PM.
Meanwhile 18 per cent said they would support Labour and 7 per cent would opt for other parties if an election was held tomorrow.
It will further increase Tory fears of looming catastrophe amid Labour’s huge poll lead and the recent rise in Reform’s popularity.
Our first past the post system makes breaking through difficult, but Labour did it in 1922, when they pushed the Liberals into third place, from which the never recovered. Are we about to see the same thing happen to the Tories? As with Labour in 1922, Reform have no chance of winning, but they may have a chance of altering the landscape. Their polling numbers are at a record high and still climbing. I know, I know, chances are slim, but it’s not unprecedented. There is always hope.
History never repeats itself but it often rhymes.
Yes, one can draw parallels with the liberals in 1922. A palpable sense of betrayal? (“homes fit for heroes”) Perhaps, but did the liberals truly deserve what happened to them?
However, did it really matter in the long term? One party replaced another but the political system, society, the British nation with its centuries of tradition and achievement continued and came through the far greater trials that were soon to follow.
2024 is not 1924. A hundred years ago, there were communists and fascists of course, but the main parties did not loathe the British people of the very essence of the British nation the way they do now.
What so many people are wanting – me certainly – is for a genuinely pro British party to appear. Something to be able to actually believe in. Reform will be getting my vote – for what it’s worth, and if voting is still actually worth anything the next few years will show.
My expectations from reform are not high, but they don’t really have to be. A decent vote, even if it results in no seats will be a place holder “look, there are millions who just want to let you know we’re here”.
This very likely will be ignored and perhaps that will then be the end of “democratic” politics, and fragmentation with the nastier elements coming to the fore may follow.
I think toytown austria-hungary may be the forum to watch as they seem to be a ahead of us in this (their politics has always been rather more volatile and a construct has been forced on them, the decay of which pretty well guarantees it).
We do indeed live in interesting times.
Historically the Conservatives have pivoted (or u-turned) on key principles to ensure they remain current and electable. They don’t seem to care anymore offering trivial smoking bans and shop staff assault as distractions for their abysmal performance. A lot of the Tony Blair nonsense should have been recast, Brexit should have been progressed with more vigour, and illegal immigration stopped. No signs of pivoting there.
All three main parties hate the plebs. The Tories because we won’t do what we’re told (i.e. wanting BRExit instead of “BRINO”), Labour because we’re a bunch of Nationalistic Racists and the LIB/DEMS because we’re not them (they’re a special kind of crazy).
At least Reform is prepared to offer common sense policies on cutting taxes by cutting spending, cheaper energy, reducing legal and illegal immigration to “Net Zero” and reducing NHS waiting lists.
Better to vote for that than the same old “Various shades of No Difference” from the other parties.
Agreed, that’s who is going to get my vote, and why.
It’s an interesting conclusion, that citizens who vote for Reform, will be doing so because of the positivity of the party backing Britain.
In the past, there would be many floating votes for alternatives, because the two mainstream parties were a dire proposition, so some ticks went to the Monster Ravers, the ‘Independents’, and even the Lib Dems if the said citizen could think of nobody else, or was mentally lightweight!
I’ll certainly be voting for Reform, as although Tunbridge Wells would freeze over at getting anyone but a Tory, I must vote for what I actually believe in, not what I’m told by others, who have just stuck a leaflet through my door, telling me exactly the same drivel that they’ve not delivered on for many years past!
If a third of the votes in the next General Election went to Reform it might still not achieve any MPs. But it would send a message to the main parties, it might result in some later by-election wins, it might affect the rebuilding of the Conservative party…
I am at heart, a conservative. The Conservative party has had 14 years or so to do conservative things and has consistently done socialist things. Recently the party has been paying lip service to a few conservative things that it thinks might, just possibly, stave off a complete collapse at the next election. Too little, too late. I’ll be voting Reform.
I too am a natural conservative, sadly the tories detest the genuine working class nearly as much as the party currently masquerading as labour.
I haven’t voted for one of the mainstream parties for probably 30 years, i absolutely refuse to vote for an unelectable party because i am told they are the least dangerous by a bought media.
I will vote reform this time because the country’s only hope for the future is if the tory party is utterly destroyed, one can hope something with conservative values can grow in its place but won’t be holding my breath.
Reform are making some of the right noises but i do not trust Farage one inch, he pulled the rug on the brexit party candidates at the last minute last time allowing the tories a home run huge majority, fool me once shame on you.
What a bloody state we’re in, most people will vote as they always do for con or lab, one party deserves to lose the other doesn’t deserve to win, the electorate doing the same as they always do and once again expecting a different result, lunacy.