He May be Right

Apparently Sunak’s claim is extraordinary.

Rishi Sunak has conceded the Conservatives may not win the next general election, but made the extraordinary claim there would be a hung parliament.

Entirely possible. So not extraordinary.

But Mr Sunak claimed the performance shows Britain is on course for a hung parliament, claiming voters would not want to see Sir Keir Starmer “propped up in Downing Street” by the SNP or smaller parties. The most recent YouGov poll puts Labour 26 points ahead of the Tories.

Sigh… YouGov is not reliable evidence of anything. If a YouGov poll told us that the sun rises in the east, I’d feel obliged to get up at dawn to check for myself. YouGov is a self-selecting sample, so tainted from the outset. It tells us nothing. And how many times have the pollsters got it horribly wrong come the day of the poll that matters? These people get it wrong time after time. People lie to them. People refuse to speak to them and people refrain from telling them their preferences because they don’t want to be judged.

As was mentioned here a couple of days back – in 1992, the polls were predicting a Neil Kinnock premiership. How did that pan out?

The reality here is that Sunak’s prediction is entirely possible. A spit right wing vote and a split left wing one along with people who will vote tactically to keep Labour out, could, indeed, scupper the predicted landslide. Personally, I wouldn’t put money on one.


  1. “…in 1992, the polls were predicting a Neil Kinnock premiership. How did that pan out?”
    We got Tony Blair in 1997. That’s how that panned out.

  2. The fact that hardly anyone is enthusiastic about Steer Calmer becoming prime monster leads me to agree with your prediction, Mr L. A hung parliament does seem the most likely result of the election.

  3. Deserve to lose vs don’t deserve to win.

    A hung whorehouse would be a reasonable reflection of the electorate’s wishes.

    And an endorsement of the first past the post system they so desperately want to get rid of.

    They would have to do their dirty deals and betrayals semi-publically rather than behind the scenes as they would be able to in any sort of proportional orgy.

    I do hope it happens.

  4. Deserve to lose vs don’t deserve to win.

    Sounds more like the result of the 2010 election, but with the parties switched.

    Can’t see Sir Kneels-a-lot going it alone with a minority Labour government. Doesn’t have the cajones for that one. He’ll make some shitty deal with one of the minor parties for support and use his usual bluff-and-bluster to make it seem like it’s what he’s always wanted.

    Labour/SNP seems more likely than anything else. Can’t imagine the Lib Dems would be up for it after the battering they took in 2010/15 parliament.

  5. Given that people are turning to Labour in their droves (for some reason) to kick the SNP out here in Scotland, a Lab/Nat coalition would go down like a bucket of warm sick.

    If, as I agree looks likely right now, it’s a hung parliament, Sir Kneels-a-Lot is going to be in a very tricky position indeed.

  6. Stare Kramer doesn’t actually have to give the Growleress a post in cabinet, as the ‘gift’ of the senior positions in government has nothing to do with the Labour Party’s hierarchy!

    Looking at the dross-pool he’ll have to choose from, I think that UK Inc. will be totally ‘*****’ (fill in your chosen word, and let LR choose the correct one…)

  7. I can’t help thinking that Sir Keir Starmer is now a front for the TBIGC after doing almost everything they tell him to do his results have astonished – Blair, Mandelson and Rimmer are the ones who will bring him into a darkened room after the landslide election and tell him what goes in the King’s speech.

  8. Anyone attempting to predict the parliamentary outcome of the next election is a misguided fool, the variables are just too great. . . .

    Scotland – how badly will the broken SNP perform?
    Reform UK – what impact will Reform UK have in different constituencies?
    Farage – will he, won’t he? The answer will affect the above.
    Green Party – ambitions for more seats than one, it’s possible, every seat counts.
    Gaza – what impact will that have in selected ethnic seats?
    Tactical voting – the anti-Tory vote, going to different parties in different seats.
    Events – whatever may happen before polling day?

    A Tory majority currently seems the most unlikely outcome, but that’s about as misguidedly foolish as I’m prepared to be.

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