I’m Not a Betting man

But if I was, I think the odds on this one are pretty low.

Medical chiefs sounded a grim warning today about the resurgent threat from coronavirus as Boris Johnson prepares to plunge millions of people into even deeper lockdown.

Hours before the PM is due to set out a new ‘traffic light’ system of curbs for England, top government advisers were sent out to ‘roll the pitch’ with a stark assessment of the danger.

Here we go again. These are the people who have been hopelessly wrong about everything so far and yet the government still listens to them. When your hypothesis is not matched by reality, your hypothesis is wrong. What a sane person does not do is keep repeating the same mistakes and keep listening to the same charlatans in the hope that this time it will work. It didn’t work last time because it was wrong. The figures are insanely inflated and are wrong. They have been consistently wrong since pants-down Furgusen preached doom and gloom over CJD. He was wrong about that, he was wrong about foot and mouth – I recall a decade ago dire warnings about SARS, MERS, swine flu and avian flu and they were wrong about those, too.

It’s almost as if they want it to happen and are so desperate that they will use any ruse in the book to make their inflated figures match their inflated egos – reality must be forced to fit the hypothesis despite its stubborn refusal to submit. These people are not scientists for if they were, they would have long ago accepted that their hypothesis did not stand up to scrutiny when exposed to the real world. They are shamans waving their hands and doing a sacred dance to ward off the evil spirits when what needs to happen is pretty much nothing. By all means open up the Nightingale hospitals as a precautionary measure in the event of an increase in ICU demand. But that’s it. Advise people that if they are vulnerable, then they should consider isolating. But that’s it. Let us manage our own risk and leave us alone and stop trashing the economy and our liberties.

 

7 Comments

  1. As Richard Feynman said, “It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.”

    These backroom ‘health’ modellers are no better than their financial counterparts of the previous decade who bellowed triumphantly about the “exciting new financial products” derived from their equally-imaginary models and who then drove the global economy off a cliff when it all went up in a puff of sub-prime smoke. Amazingly, the health modellers have now managed to outdo even them.

    Who knew that the destroyer of worlds would not look like Shiva but instead like pasty Pantsdown Ferguson?

  2. the downing street briefing said it all with boris responding to the final question;-‘um, ah,um,ah,um,um,um,uh,er.well thank you and goodnight’

  3. It’s Gov’t idiocy, their “cases” are not sick people. The only figure that matters is deaths, and C-19 deaths are x10 lower than Cancer, Heart/Stroke, Flu.

    ~1,688 die every day in UK – 10, 50, 200 With C-19 is nothing to worry about. On 5 October WHO inadvertently admitted C-19 was less dangerous than Flu
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97kyDCNTGd8

    Let us manage our own risk and leave us alone and stop trashing the economy and our liberties

    Exactly

    Conservative MP Philip Davies has urged British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to believe in the common sense of the British people. Philip Davies says “we don’t need the rules, just wash your hands and social distance, use common sense”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQqxW11Fyyc

    Boris Johnson agrees, then does opposite with more damaging, futile lockdowns
    Using common sense would mean not putting in these unlawful measures in the first place.

    Covid 19 is not a threat. Government stupidity is the real threat.

    For more see
    https://lockdownsceptics.org/2020/10/12/latest-news-160/

    @Bill, Janszoon
    +1

  4. It really is madness. It is surely obvious by now that all the restrictions do is kick the can down the road. We are being governed by a cabal of incompetents obsessing about Covid at the expense of everything else including our liberties. I have the good fortune to be sheltered so far from the economic disaster unfolding because I have long since retired and have a decent pension but I’m seething; I find it difficult to imagine how those losing their businesses and jobs must be thinking about it.

    One statistic the ONS doesn’t give us is the number of people who have died from heart attacks caused by apoplectic fury at the Government’s bungling idiocy.

  5. Since writing the above it’s become apparent that Labour believes we should have locked down completely. So, no surprise really, they are even worse.

  6. Boris and his cabinet are there to add the people and economic factors. Both camps have forgotten that for ~99% of the population SARS-Covid-2 is a mild infection should they contract it. Most people will not contract it if you need to meet around 1200 people to stand any chance of catching it. This is hysteria on anabolic steroids. We have quite a nasty ‘flu episode ever year mostly during winter. It kills a few tens of thousands. The vaccine only helps a few percent as it is usually a vaccine to last year’s strain. That will be the same for any Covid-19 vaccine. The whole response of the government has been a terrible waste of our economy. It was not necessary. Unlike the ‘flu covid-19 does not attack the young and the old, it mostly attacks just the old and infirm. So to keep deaths low so the government isn’t vilified as a bunch of uncaring killers they need to target any shielding to the most likely victims and ensure any outliers who catch it are isolated and treated. This is not rocket science. Neither is rocket science as it is mostly engineering. I dispare, I really do, as a professional medical microbiologist.

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