A Totalitarian Speaks

You can always rely upon the Guardian to give a voice to totalitarians and it doesn’t disappoint. Step forward Stephen Reicher.

New UK-wide restrictions are now essential. At Independent Sage, we’ve come up with a five-point emergency plan

Basically more home arrest for you and I.

It is now clear that variant B117 of Covid-19 is already established in all parts of the UK. Being an estimated 56% more transmissible than pre-existing variants, it is likely to constitute 90% of all cases by mid-January. According to UK government briefings, even current tier 4 restrictions are insufficient to deal with its spread. Indeed, no single measure is likely to be sufficient to bring the pandemic back under control.

Yada, yada, yada. This is all scare tactics. Even if the estimate is true, so what? Is it more dangerous? ONS figures suggest not. We are pretty much experiencing a normal winter, so panic need not apply. People die of respiratory illness every winter. The cohort that is dying is the usual – elderly at the end of life and those with co-morbidity. We should not be trying to stop the spread any more than King Cnut should have tried to stop the waves coming to the shore. Yes, I know, he was making a point – the same one I am making here. People die. We cannot stop this unless we have found a cure for mortality. Airborne viruses spread upon the air, we cannot stop this, either.

First, there’s the question of vaccination. The rollout of vaccines is a key part of the strategy to combat Covid-19 and must be accelerated as a matter of urgency. This should be organised through the over 8,000 GP practices in the UK, supported through additional staff and resources, and coordinated via local public health structures.

However, vaccination cannot be the entire strategy. This is because of the time taken to complete it (that’s even if we reach the target of 2 million vaccinations a week called for by members of the government’s influenza modelling group), uncertainties over its duration of immunity and impact on transmission, and restrictions on its use in some populations (eg children, pregnant women and breastfeeding mothers).

This is always assuming that the vaccine will work on this new scary mutant strain… Vaccines for corona-viruses will always have a limited effect due to this very reason – they mutate. We don’t try to stop influenza, neither should we try here. By all means vaccinate those most at risk, but accept that this is a limited strategy at best.

All this is exacerbated by the fact that, due to the increased infectiousness of the new variant, a higher proportion of people need to be vaccinated in order to achieve population immunity.

This assumes no existing levels of immunity. These so-called scientists have already been proven wrong on this one. See Pants-down, always wrong about everything Ferguson’s idiotic projections (and still they listen to this charlatan).

This takes us to the second point: national control measures are essential. Further restrictions are necessary in two main areas. The first of these is personal travel, especially international travel.

It really doesn’t take long for these people to get their jackboots out, does it? It’s almost as if they are in the bottom of the wardrobe just waiting for that moment… Here we have an argument for a “papers please” society along with what will effectively be internal passports. Restrictions, these nasty scumbags love restrictions on the proles. Can’t have the common people indulging in personal travel.

Schools should remain closed until buildings are made as safe as possible for pupils and staff. This includes smaller class sizes (achieved through hiring extra teachers and teaching rooms), adequate ventilation and free masks for all pupils.

Idiot! Schoolchildren are the least affected, so should be allowed to go to school and get it. Of course we can just magically produce more teachers and premises in this moron’s magical utopia. If I was inclined to take this person seriously (ok, I wasn’t) then this is the point where that ceased. The man is a buffoon. A dangerous totalitarian buffoon.

Universities should move to online teaching as the default until Easter at least. This will allow students to study from home, avoiding issues arising from travel and crowded campus accommodation. For school, college and university students, there should be universal provision of computers and wifi connections to ensure everyone can study remotely. Schoolchildren without space for home study should be taught along with vulnerable children and children of key workers.

Once again, the magic money tree is wheeled out to prevent spread precisely where it needs to spread.

Our third point in the plan is about the UK’s test, trace and isolate regime.

That’s worked out so well. Oh, but this idiot has a reason for this – the private sector (boo hiss!).

The government’s contracting out of the test and trace system has shown the private sector is not up to the job – and nor can it be. Effective tracing and supported isolation depend upon local public health staff who know their patch and are trusted by the community. The need for a “public health reset” of the testing system remains urgent.

Yup, that’s right, the public sector rides in to the rescue. Track and trace has failed in part because people have avoided playing the game. Many have refused to comply, refused to download the app, refused to answer the phone or given false information. Why is this? I can only speak for myself, but I know my risk is low. Given this, the likelihood of a false positive is too disruptive, so I’ve not complied with any of this nonsense. Nor do I plan to, regardless of who is doing the tracing. I don’t check in anywhere and I never leave any contact details. This is because unlike Reicher, I am aware that a positive test result is not the same thing as an infection and I’ll be damned if I self isolate because someone that I may have been near briefly tested positive.

Practical support is necessary in order to enable people to self-isolate. The continued failure to address this issue in the UK has led to continued low adherence (less than 20% for those with symptoms) and contrasts markedly with the 90-95% rates achieved in places like New York, which supports isolation with everything from financial assistance and hotel accommodation to pet care.

I’m not sure that I would want to draw a comparison with New York, frankly. That said, the only people who need to self isolate are those who are vulnerable and possibly those in direct contact with them. The rest of us should carry on as normal.

Still, Reicher isn’t going to be paying for the financial fallout, so why should he worry. Just shake that magic money tree and everything will be alright.

Next, workplaces. When the government relaxed restrictions in July, they handed over responsibility to employers and owners of facilities to make their premises safe but with limited guidance, minimal support, and virtually no formal regulation. While many enterprises have worked assiduously to ensure that adequate Covid mitigations are implemented, this is not true of all. It is now critical to ensure that we have robust systems to prevent the spread of infection. This should include funds for necessary changes, inspection of all premises and certification of those meeting the required standards.

Ah, yes, inspectors. That’s just what we want, an army of inspectors. Once again, we see the totalitarian thinking coming out. That and the magic money tree. “There should be funds…” Yes and who is going to provide those funds? You and I, I’m afraid, and our children and their children.

Finally, financial support for the public is crucial. Inequalities are playing a central role in this pandemic. The disease impacts more on vulnerable populations as do the measures used to control it. People on low incomes are more likely to lose jobs and suffer financially than the more affluent, many of whom have profited from this pandemic.

I’m not sure if this lackwit has been paying attention, but what does he think the chancellor has been doing this past nine months or so? The economy has been trashed providing support for people who should have been working and who would have been happy to do so if it hadn’t been for the absurd, unnecessary and damaging restrictions. Yet despite the financial support, businesses have crashed and burned and people have lost their jobs, livelihoods and in some cases, lives. So that support worked well, didn’t it?

At a time when the UK (population 67 million, Covid deaths 70,752) has been experiencing more than 30,000 new cases a day and prevaricating about what measures are needed, Australia (population 25 million, Covid deaths 909) instituted immediate and far-reaching restrictions in Sydney after an “outbreak” of 38 cases. One local person responded by saying: “Let’s go early, let’s go hard and let’s get this baby.” This makes a good mantra for the pandemic as a whole. Our plan is a minimum for what needs to be implemented – without delay.

Ah, yes, the final weapon of the charlatan, gerrymandered figures. Quite apart from PHE having been caught inflating the figures, the total number of covid deaths are not the issue. And the Aussies went all out totalitarian to the point of insanity – yes, even more than the UK government. However, eventually when people start to move about again, what does he think will happen? That’s right, people will spread it about because all that lock-downs do is delay the inevitable.

Last winter overall deaths were on a par with a bad flu year. This year (winter 2020/21) are pretty much the five year average. The NHS is bleating as is usual for this time of the year. But adding two winters together make such  a nice scary figure. What is being ignored are the deaths and damage caused by the controls. But we don’t care about those, do we? No, far better to get those jackboots out in the name of covid.

Stephen Reicher is a professor of psychology at the University of St Andrews and a member of Independent Sage. This piece was written after discussion and detailed input from other members of the group.

So, not a scientist and not an expert. Not someone we should be paying any attention to. Just a nasty little totalitarian with a pair of jackboots in the cupboard waiting to be appointed to his commissariat.